Slippage model

A leader's profit is not your profit. You copy late, at a worse price. That gap is the whole game.

The core idea

When you follow a trader, you don't get their fill — you get the price after they (and everyone else watching) moved it. A genuine edge can vanish entirely in that gap. So we don't score a wallet by what it earned. We score it by what would be left for you after realistic slippage.

How the model works

• Net edge = gross edge − entry impact − exit impact.
• Impact scales with the leader's position size and turnover relative to market liquidity. A whale flipping size in thin markets is expensive to follow; a patient trader taking big-margin positions in liquid markets is cheap.
• We compute a recommended slippage for each wallet (rec_slip) and test whether the edge survives it (survives_slip).
• Fragile wins. Wins that cleared by a margin thinner than realistic slippage are counted as losses for a copier — because for you, they would be.

The verdict

We collapse all of it into one label: gross ROI → NET ROI after slippage →

• COPY-WORTHY  net edge survives realistic slippage
• RISKY  edge is thin and sensitive to your fill speed
• TRAP  profitable for them, losing for copiers

Honesty note

This is a model, not a guarantee. Your real fills depend on how fast and how large you trade. The point isn't a perfect number — it's to separate traders whose edge is robust from those whose edge only exists at their own entry price. Slippage model: entry + exit impact scaled by leader size and turnover.