Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xfffe…4e6c
sports · 291 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$225 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$179 · open −$360
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,066
Realized+$179
Unrealized−$360
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses149 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$772
Open positions18
Markets (closed)276 / 291
History coverage85d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day37.9
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 18 History 276 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,312
7 days−$1,700
14 days−$1,223
30 days−$4,071
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 83¢ 90¢ $1,102 $1,200 +$97 (+9%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Legacy 52¢ 54¢ $537 $549 +$12 (+2%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Yes 65¢ 40¢ $748 $459 −$289 (-39%)
Will MOUZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? No 52¢ 60¢ $161 $187 +$26 (+16%)
Will Monte qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? No 87¢ 76¢ $167 $147 −$20 (-12%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 84¢ 52¢ $193 $119 −$74 (-38%)
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $103 $106 +$3 (+3%)
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 100¢ $80 $100 +$20 (+25%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 24¢ $61 $29 −$32 (-53%)
UFC Fight Night: Billy Elekana vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Iwo Baraniewski 51¢ 50¢ $26 $26 −$1 (-2%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will MOUZ reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Yes 69¢ 8¢ $111 $13 −$98 (-88%)
Will Diego Lopes become UFC champion in 2026? Yes 12¢ 17¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+44%)
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? No 62¢ 27¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-56%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No 78¢ 67¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 THUNDER dOWNUNDER 26¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner B8 40¢ 0¢ $226 $0 −$226 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 22¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 38¢ 0¢ $266 $0 −$266 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 B8 39¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BIG 53¢ 0¢ $371 $0 −$371 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $35 +$34 +97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $627 −$24 -4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $568 −$335 -59%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $302 −$155 -51%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $227 −$226 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $549 −$542 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,311 −$430 -33%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $74 −$15 -20%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,667 +$68 +4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $67 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $678 +$6 +1%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $429 −$423 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $110 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $307 −$266 -87%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $713 −$33 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $117 +$51 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,946 +$809 +42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $316 +$176 +56%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $184 −$181 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $684 +$271 +40%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $690 −$678 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$20 +101%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $416 −$409 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $586 +$427 +73%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $360 +$123 +34%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $550 −$376 -68%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $766 +$348 +45%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $248 −$245 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $731 +$269 +37%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $406 +$390 +96%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $726 −$395 -54%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $179 +$260 +145%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $247 +$252 +102%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $206 +$175 +85%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $255 −$251 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $270 −$2 -1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $218 +$19 +9%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $144 −$10 -7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $99 −$91 -92%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $377 −$373 -99%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $292 +$214 +73%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $12 +$20 +165%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $55 −$55 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $473 −$466 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $582 −$246 -42%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $393 +$539 +137%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $337 +$140 +42%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $291 +$9 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 74% +$1,426
world 23% −$2,020
other 3% +$411
culture 0% +$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 50¢ $16 5m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 51¢ $231 6m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 50¢ $6 7m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 51¢ $15 8m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 52¢ $83 10m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 53¢ $23 10m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 55¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 55¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 55¢ $99 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 55¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 55¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 61¢ $57 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 61¢ $55 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 61¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 61¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 61¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 61¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 61¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 61¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 61¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 61¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 61¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 61¢ $38 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 61¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 61¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 61¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 61¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 61¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 61¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 61¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -16.5% -24.4% 45% 35% -17.6%
≤30d 114 -10.8% -19.3% 46% 39% -19.8%
≤90d 276 +15.6% +4.6% 54% 39% -9.3%
all 276 +15.6% +4.6% 54% 39% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover37.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.6% 39% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -5.4% 33% -17.9%
15% -14.6% 30% -25.9%
20% -22.9% 25% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,066.17 · official $3,066.18 (match) · 3500 history records