Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:24:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xfffe…f52c
politics · 27 markets active 583d ago
0.0score
+$3,771,484 +30%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,771,484 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,771,484
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses26 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 27
History coverage6d
Avg bet$472,960
Trades / day623.4
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,140,384
7 days−$1,140,384
14 days−$1,140,384
30 days−$1,140,384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Biden finish his term? Yes 73¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+38%)
Will Elizabeth Warren win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $40,602 $0 −$40,602 (-100%)
Will any other Republican Politician win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $40,602 $0 −$40,602 (-100%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $40,602 $0 −$40,602 (-100%)
Will Michelle Obama win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $40,602 $0 −$40,602 (-100%)
Will Hillary Clinton win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $40,602 $0 −$40,602 (-100%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $40,602 $0 −$40,602 (-100%)
Will AOC win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $40,602 $0 −$40,602 (-100%)
Will Kanye West win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $40,602 $0 −$40,602 (-100%)
Will any other Democrat Politician win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $40,602 $0 −$40,602 (-100%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $40,602 $0 −$40,602 (-100%)
Will Chris Christie win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $40,602 $0 −$40,602 (-100%)
Will RFK Jr. win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $40,602 $0 −$40,602 (-100%)
Will Nikki Haley win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $40,602 $0 −$40,602 (-100%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $40,602 $0 −$40,602 (-100%)
Will a Republican win the popular vote and a Democrat win the Presidency? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $26,435 $0 −$26,435 (-100%)
Biden wins the Popular Vote? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $292,605 $0 −$292,605 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elizabeth Warren win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential El Jun 12 $40,602 −$40,602 -100%
Will any other Republican Politician win the popular vote in the 2024 Jun 12 $40,602 −$40,602 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Ele Jun 12 $40,602 −$40,602 -100%
Will Michelle Obama win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Jun 12 $40,602 −$40,602 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Ele Jun 12 $40,602 −$40,602 -100%
Will Ron DeSantis win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Jun 12 $40,602 −$40,602 -100%
Will AOC win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Jun 12 $40,602 −$40,602 -100%
Will Kanye West win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election Jun 12 $40,602 −$40,602 -100%
Will any other Democrat Politician win the popular vote in the 2024 Pr Jun 12 $40,602 −$40,602 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Jun 12 $40,602 −$40,602 -100%
Will Chris Christie win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Jun 12 $40,602 −$40,602 -100%
Will RFK Jr. win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Jun 12 $40,602 −$40,602 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electio Jun 12 $40,602 −$40,602 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Jun 12 $40,602 −$40,602 -100%
Biden wins the Popular Vote? Jun 12 $292,605 −$571,959 -196%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $6,926,925 +$109,783 +2%
Will Biden finish his term? Nov 06 $87,777 +$217,532 +248%
Will a Republican win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $247,479 +$16,477 +7%
Will a Democrat win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $473,684 +$27,188 +6%
Will a Republican win Hawaii Presidential Election? Nov 06 $341,046 +$21,752 +6%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $800,390 +$39,850 +5%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 06 $166,844 +$791,242 +474%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 05 $137,775 +$1,266,020 +919%
Will Gavin Newsom be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Nov 05 $5,951 +$6 +0%
Will Trump drop out of presidential race? Nov 05 $465,854 +$331,180 +71%
2 or more Vance vs. Walz debates before election? Nov 05 $12,256 +$12 +0%
1 Vance vs. Walz debate before election? Nov 05 $26,586 +$27 +0%
Joe Biden impeached before 2024 election? Nov 05 $69,500 +$209 +0%
Trump in jail before election day? Nov 05 $68,284 +$73,336 +107%
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? Nov 05 $148,985 +$1,483 +1%
Trump-Vance Republican ticket on election day? Nov 05 $81,214 +$179,438 +221%
Biden removed via 25th Amendment? Nov 05 $122,719 +$390,757 +318%
Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election? Nov 05 $92,000 +$496,866 +540%
Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Nov 05 $714,594 +$715 +0%
1 Trump vs. Harris debate before election? Nov 05 $33,117 +$33 +0%
Will Kamala Harris drop out of presidential race? Nov 05 $71,023 +$71 +0%
Trump sentenced to no prison time? Nov 05 $72,881 +$73 +0%
Hunter Biden in jail before election day? Nov 05 $50 +$1 +2%
Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee? Nov 05 $79,686 +$80 +0%
Harris-Walz Democratic ticket on election day? Nov 05 $199,387 +$550,810 +276%
Will Biden resign before the election? Nov 05 $1,297,447 +$423,361 +33%
Will a Republican win the popular vote and a Democrat win the Presiden Nov 04 $26,450 −$26,435 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 99% +$4,911,796
sports 1% +$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $198,299 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $10 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $50 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $500 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $40 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $300 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $92 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $8,854 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $9,100 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $46 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $11 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $10 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $12 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $5 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $100 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $728 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $470 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $5 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $5 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $239 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $2 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $39 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $27 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $2,275 583d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL Yes 91¢ $3,877 583d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+63.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 15 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 15 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 42 +80.7% +63.5% 62% 24% +16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover623.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +63.5% 24% +16.1%
10% +47.9% 24% +5.0%
15% ← realistic here +33.6% 21% -5.2%
20% +20.5% 21% -14.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.29 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records