Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:40:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

FF 0xfffe…1acc crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL +$163 (+5%) realized +$179 · open −$16

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip

Net edge-29%after slip

Net WR22%break-even

Win rate22%2W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$221per market

Trades / day26.0pace

Fees−$14est.

Kalshi-fit93%portable

Net worth$584now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +22%

net ROI/market (all)-16.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-8.0%	-16.7%	22%	22%	-22.1%
≤30d	9	-8.0%	-16.7%	22%	22%	-22.1%
≤90d	9	-8.0%	-16.7%	22%	22%	-22.1%
all	9	-8.0%	-16.7%	22%	22%	-22.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover26.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-16.7%	22%	-22.1%
10% ← realistic here	-24.7%	11%	-29.5%
15%	-32.0%	11%	-36.3%
20%	-38.6%	11%	-42.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$244 vs −$116 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.6 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$584

Realized+$179

Unrealized−$16

Win rate (resolved)22%

Wins / losses2 / 7

Est. fees paid−$14

Open positions5

Markets (closed)9 / 14

History coverage1d

Avg bet$221

Trades / day26.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$200	$194	−$6 (-3%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	Yes	32¢	32¢	$100	$98	−$2 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw?	Yes	25¢	24¢	$100	$98	−$2 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$100	$97	−$3 (-3%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$100	$96	−$4 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Jun 24	$210	−$171	-81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Jun 24	$104	−$100	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Jun 24	$101	+$12	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Jun 24	$107	−$107	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Jun 24	$212	−$100	-47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Jun 24	$105	−$49	-46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Jun 24	$213	−$200	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Jun 24	$106	+$476	+450%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Jun 24	$1,319	−$88	-7%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$102	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$102	1h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$102	1h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$102	1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$102	1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	BUY Down	14¢	$106	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	SELL Up	18¢	$39	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$113	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	BUY Up	87¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$35	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$72	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$107	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	SELL Down	10¢	$42	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Down	23¢	$105	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	SELL Down	15¢	$57	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$105	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$81	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Up	18¢	$106	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$582	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Up	17¢	$106	2h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	SELL No	50¢	$1,230	2h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	BUY No	51¢	$1,319	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $583.93 · official $583.93 (match) · 28 history records