Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:59:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FF 0xfffa…b754 other 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,233 (-1%) realized −$1,233 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%7W / 88L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$863per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$677now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$12
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$41
politics 24% −$25
sports 8% −$1,177
economics 3% −$3
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 32 -4.3% -13.4% 9% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 87 -5.2% -14.2% 8% 6% -11.0%
all 95 -4.7% -13.8% 7% 5% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 5% -10.9%
10% -22.1% 5% -19.4%
15% -29.6% 4% -27.2%
20% -36.5% 3% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$949) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$15 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$677
Realized−$1,233
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses7 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)95 / 97
History coverage97d
Avg bet$863
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $350 $350 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $327 $327 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $965 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $274 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $236 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $803 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,588 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $2,055 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $736 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,717 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,553 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,727 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,042 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $64 +$43 +67%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $844 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $785 −$1 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $233 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $352 +$1 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $305 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $506 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $923 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $2,618 −$3 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw? May 25 $47 −$47 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 23 $74 −$74 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 23 $956 −$956 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $29 +$27 +93%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $28 +$14 +50%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 04 $713 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $863 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 29 $803 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $2,469 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 26 $47 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $1,825 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $949 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $1,688 −$2 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,775 −$2 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $875 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $350 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $277 5h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $278 7h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $274 24h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $274 27h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $236 4d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $236 4d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $397 5d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $398 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $447 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $448 6d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $445 6d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $446 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $421 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $421 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $483 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $484 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $499 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $499 8d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $327 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $735 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $736 9d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $630 12d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $630 12d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $633 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $634 14d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $647 14d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $648 14d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $814 14d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $815 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $676.72 · official $676.72 (match) · 285 history records