Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:33:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xfff4…5866 crypto 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 562d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%147W / 5L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% +$17
other 33% $0
politics 9% $0
tech 6% +$1
weather 3% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
world 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 30 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 124 +0.3% -9.3% 98% 0% -9.3%
all 152 -0.4% -9.8% 97% 1% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 1% -9.0%
10% -18.5% 0% -17.7%
15% -26.4% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.16 per $1 lost it wins $6.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

562d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses147 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)152 / 153
History coverage562d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? Jun 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Jun 23 $63 $0 +0%
Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 9? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2 Jun 20 $24 $0 +1%
Will Betty Yee advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elect Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 06 $13 $0 +1%
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec Jun 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May? May 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $19 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 26? May 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 26? May 27 $49 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 26 $21 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 25? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 18-24? May 25 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 18-24? May 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 18-24? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will "COWARD by Lukas DHONT" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Fe May 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 23? May 23 $19 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 23? May 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 21? May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? May 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 21 $29 $0 +0%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? May 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 18? May 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will VOX (VOX) win the Andalusia regional election? May 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ben Griffin win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 19 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $67 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 3d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY No 100¢ $63 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $13 16d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2 BUY No 99¢ $24 16d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 18d
Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National BUY No 100¢ $12 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $13 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $23 23d
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec BUY No 100¢ $23 23d
Will Betty Yee advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elect BUY No 100¢ $46 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $15 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31? BUY No 100¢ $19 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $13 25d
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 25-31? BUY No 100¢ $19 26d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 27d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 100¢ $13 27d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 BUY No 100¢ $14 27d
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 20 BUY No 100¢ $30 28d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $19 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $19 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.60 · official $66.70 (match) · 311 history records