Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:56:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xfff3…e2c5 sports 541 markets active 0h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,625 (-4%) realized −$5,628 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate60%320W / 217L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$1,034est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$479now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$532
7 days+$532
14 days+$528
30 days−$15,996
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$3,685
other 27% −$6,802
crypto 7% +$825
world 3% −$3,856
politics 0% −$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +79.1% +62.0% 86% 86% +66.9%
≤30d 54 -1.2% -10.6% 54% 54% -35.5%
≤90d 208 +1.3% -8.4% 47% 47% -15.4%
all 537 +2.3% -7.5% 60% 46% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 46% -13.7%
10% -16.3% 39% -22.0%
15% -24.4% 31% -29.5%
20% -31.8% 24% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +13% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$247 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$479
Realized−$5,628
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses320 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,034
Open positions4
Markets (closed)537 / 541
History coverage156d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 537 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 29¢ 30¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+2%)
Ruzic vs. Raducanu: Match O/U 21.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda Mattia Bellucci 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
France vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 28¢ 28¢ $75 $77 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 180.5 Jun 28 $203 +$197 +97%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $102 +$88 +86%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $46 +$29 +64%
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $3 +$2 +65%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $22 +$27 +120%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $153 +$194 +127%
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 28 $101 −$5 -5%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $28 −$27 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $38 −$38 -99%
Elena Rybakina vs. Tatjana Maria: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 11 $4,430 −$4,366 -99%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 166.5 Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 10 $100 −$98 -99%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Belinda Bencic Jun 10 $4,738 −$229 -5%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $98 −$97 -99%
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 10 $102 +$148 +146%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $308 −$304 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Virtanen vs. Majchrzak: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 09 $467 −$460 -98%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 09 $25 +$30 +119%
Bratislava: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Emilio Nava Jun 09 $568 −$557 -98%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 09 $4,173 −$4,113 -99%
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $44 −$43 -98%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 14.5 Jun 05 $71 +$50 +70%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 12.5 Jun 04 $544 +$415 +76%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $677 +$323 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $437 +$563 +129%
Centurion 2: Robin Bertrand vs Patrick Zahraj Jun 03 $144 +$101 +70%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $225 −$221 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $8,264 −$8,219 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 02 $721 +$272 +38%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 02 $101 +$81 +79%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $7,695 +$2,305 +30%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 02 $557 −$550 -99%
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $90 +$30 +33%
Centurion: Giles Hussey vs Edward Winter Jun 01 $30 +$20 +65%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5 May 31 $52 +$48 +92%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $172 +$71 +42%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $214 +$201 +94%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys May 30 $287 −$287 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $11,442 +$3,582 +31%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova May 30 $101 +$80 +79%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 30 $68 −$67 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $4,568 −$4,520 -99%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 May 30 $100 +$92 +92%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) May 30 $252 +$178 +71%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 May 30 $610 +$230 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 28¢ $77 21m
Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda BUY Mattia Bellucci 51¢ $101 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu SELL Antonia Ruzic 50¢ $97 1h
Ruzic vs. Raducanu: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $103 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Antonia Ruzic 51¢ $101 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $102 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $22 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 41¢ $92 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $30 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $15 2h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 180.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 3h
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 60¢ $3 3h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $61 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 29¢ $204 3h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 12¢ $4 12d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 18¢ $28 16d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $38 16d
Elena Rybakina vs. Tatjana Maria: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 65¢ $8 17d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Sorana Cirstea 51¢ $310 17d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Sorana Cirstea 51¢ $1,014 17d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Sorana Cirstea 51¢ $3,105 17d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 166.5 BUY Under 47¢ $102 18d
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 BUY No 51¢ $100 18d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Belinda Bencic SELL Belinda Bencic 50¢ $4,509 18d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Belinda Bencic BUY Belinda Bencic 51¢ $3,622 18d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Belinda Bencic BUY Belinda Bencic 51¢ $1,014 18d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Belinda Bencic BUY Belinda Bencic 51¢ $101 18d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 68¢ $98 18d
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 BUY No 36¢ $14 18d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 51¢ $207 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $479.44 · official $479.47 (match) · 1929 history records