Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:50:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FF 0xfff1…ed1f crypto 80 markets active 8h ago coverage 907d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,004 (+4%) realized +$922 · open +$82
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%24W / 44L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,958now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$986
14 days+$72
30 days+$289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$1,293
other 12% −$239
sports 1% −$48
world 0% −$34
economics 0% −$20
weather 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -51.9% -56.5% 0% 0% -62.0%
≤30d 7 +2.0% -7.7% 43% 29% -3.4%
≤90d 42 -14.4% -22.5% 29% 26% -20.1%
all 68 -2.0% -11.3% 35% 34% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 34% -6.1%
10% -19.8% 34% -15.1%
15% -27.6% 34% -23.3%
20% -34.7% 29% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$512) neutral
Persistence
early +5% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$384 vs −$190 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

907d coverage
Net worth$1,958
Realized+$922
Unrealized+$82
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses24 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)68 / 80
History coverage907d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $300 $364 +$64 (+21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $300 $344 +$44 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $401 $341 −$60 (-15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $200 $260 +$60 (+30%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $217 +$17 (+9%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $150 $158 +$8 (+6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $39 −$11 (-23%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $18 −$7 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 −$8 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 15 $1,200 −$579 -48%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $406 −$400 -99%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in June? Jun 05 $940 +$1,058 +112%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? May 24 $512 +$285 +56%
Will Mallorca be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? May 23 $150 +$15 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 22 $1,000 −$82 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 17 $1,410 −$901 -64%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 April 27-May 3? May 02 $172 +$75 +44%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $15 −$15 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 28 $1,000 −$998 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? Apr 26 $63 +$27 +42%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 20-26? Apr 23 $54 +$29 +54%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 April 20-26? Apr 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $13 +$10 +79%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April? Apr 14 $1,401 +$1,404 +100%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $21 +$19 +89%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 7? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 7? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on April 5? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on April 5? Apr 06 $2 +$23 +1153%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on April 4? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -91%
Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17 Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -74%
Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? Mar 29 $2 −$1 -61%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026? Mar 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-26? Mar 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Mar 26 $4 +$5 +133%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? Mar 25 $985 −$782 -79%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotte Mar 20 $20 +$31 +156%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $140 +$59 +42%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $210 +$140 +66%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 16 $1,000 −$796 -80%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March? Mar 13 $880 +$1,118 +127%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February? Feb 05 $1,000 +$970 +97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February? Feb 05 $820 +$1,228 +150%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Jan 14 $840 −$533 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 8h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $30 8h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 8h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $58 10h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 44¢ $94 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 30h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $153 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL Yes 27¢ $621 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 5d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $3 6d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 6d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 6d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,957.74 · official $1,957.79 (match) · 260 history records