Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:58:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FF 0xffef…e8cf crypto 184 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$294 (-7%) realized −$294 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate58%107W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$48
14 days−$48
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$15
other 23% +$4
sports 16% −$274
world 2% −$8
politics 1% +$1
tech 1% −$3
culture 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +2.6% -7.2% 63% 58% -8.6%
≤30d 19 +2.6% -7.2% 63% 58% -8.6%
≤90d 86 -53.4% -57.8% 28% 26% -54.6%
all 184 -9.0% -17.7% 58% 48% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 48% -15.1%
10% -25.6% 36% -23.2%
15% -32.8% 24% -30.6%
20% -39.4% 17% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$15 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$294
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses107 / 77
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)184 / 184
History coverage222d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 184 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 +$3 +30%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $43 +$3 +7%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$9 +44%
New Zealand to win the second half? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $61 −$55 -91%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 +$19 +93%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$64 +210%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$2 +31%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$11 +109%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +93%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$3 +16%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 $0 +18%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +67%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$17 -85%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? Apr 09 $31 −$31 -98%
Will Melania say "Be Best" during statement on April 9? Apr 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Melania say "Empower" or "Empowering" during statement on April 9 Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Melania say "Child" or "Boy" or "Girl" 6+ times during statement Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Melania say "School" during statement on April 9? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Melania say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during statement on Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 09 $1 +$1 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $25 +$21 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on November 13 Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-12-10? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will between 223 and 224 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next fun Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 53m
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 98¢ $46 1h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 66¢ $12 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $43 1h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 2h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $29 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 10h
New Zealand to win the second half? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 22h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL No 6¢ $5 22h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $61 24h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 65¢ $20 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $39 30h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 40h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $95 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 2d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 79¢ $7 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $5 2d
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 81¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $23 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 3d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Canada leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 4d
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 386 history records