Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:09:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xffef…dabf
sports · 473 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$3,054 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,669 · open +$349
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11,126
Realized+$2,669
Unrealized+$349
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses200 / 155
Est. fees paid−$420
Open positions118
Markets (closed)355 / 473
History coverage14d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day55.6
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 118 History 355 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$681
7 days+$1,791
14 days+$2,669
30 days+$2,669
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $231 $233 +$2 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 74¢ 100¢ $169 $228 +$59 (+35%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 65¢ 88¢ $164 $224 +$59 (+36%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 86¢ $184 $213 +$28 (+15%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 73¢ 88¢ $172 $209 +$37 (+21%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 66¢ 99¢ $139 $208 +$68 (+49%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $207 $205 −$1 (-1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 82¢ 98¢ $172 $205 +$33 (+19%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 22¢ 100¢ $40 $182 +$142 (+354%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 82¢ 98¢ $148 $177 +$29 (+20%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 68¢ $176 $177 +$1 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 87¢ 92¢ $165 $174 +$9 (+6%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 74¢ 72¢ $172 $169 −$3 (-2%)
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? No 39¢ 62¢ $104 $165 +$61 (+59%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Bo Nickal 75¢ 74¢ $166 $163 −$3 (-2%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 81¢ 55¢ $242 $163 −$79 (-33%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $161 $162 +$1 (+1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 63¢ 100¢ $99 $156 +$57 (+58%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 88¢ $115 $155 +$40 (+35%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 89¢ 97¢ $139 $151 +$12 (+9%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 77¢ $149 $149 +$0 (+0%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $140 $144 +$3 (+2%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Athletics 58¢ 57¢ $142 $141 −$1 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 49¢ 50¢ $139 $141 +$1 (+1%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? No 91¢ 99¢ $129 $140 +$11 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $119 +$38 +32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $150 +$27 +18%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $79 +$107 +134%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $104 −$102 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $62 +$60 +97%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $115 +$130 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $96 +$153 +158%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $138 +$60 +44%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $68 −$67 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $149 −$147 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $51 +$100 +197%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $125 −$124 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $42 +$101 +238%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $91 +$54 +60%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $67 +$81 +122%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $27 +$25 +93%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$3 -23%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $89 +$63 +71%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $85 −$32 -38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $90 −$3 -4%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $91 +$69 +76%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 12 $93 −$92 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Rybakina vs Maria Jun 12 $148 −$148 -100%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $104 +$47 +46%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $126 −$124 -99%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -28%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $166 +$151 +91%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $100 +$80 +80%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $81 +$55 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $301 +$125 +42%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $54 +$93 +172%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $48 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $124 +$68 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $68 +$39 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $136 +$77 +57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs BIG (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 11 $34 −$1 -3%
Tucuman: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 11 $106 +$36 +34%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $295 +$127 +43%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $54 +$18 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $167 +$36 +21%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $121 +$92 +76%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $131 +$30 +23%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 11 $75 −$3 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $60 +$20 +33%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $98 +$17 +17%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $36 +$34 +93%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $75 +$79 +105%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $31 +$46 +146%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $43 +$37 +86%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $138 +$158 +115%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 71% +$3,021
other 15% +$296
world 8% +$16
politics 6% −$304
tech 0% −$20
finance 0% +$18
crypto 0% −$1
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $10 52m
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 42¢ $59 56m
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $115 56m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 63¢ $100 56m
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $129 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $114 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 75¢ $119 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 31¢ $61 1h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $117 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 58¢ $144 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 68¢ $177 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 74¢ $170 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 46¢ $115 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $56 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $174 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 58¢ $150 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $170 13h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $104 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 37¢ $43 14h
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) BUY Spurs 71¢ $100 14h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 46¢ $72 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 14h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $150 14h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 49¢ $104 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $207 14h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 46¢ $68 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $98 24h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $88 24h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ $149 24h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $96 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 185 +9.7% -0.8% 57% 56% -0.2%
≤30d 355 +6.9% -3.3% 56% 54% -2.1%
≤90d 355 +6.9% -3.3% 56% 54% -2.1%
all 355 +6.9% -3.3% 56% 54% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover55.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.3% 54% -2.1%
10% ← realistic here -12.6% 51% -11.5%
15% -21.0% 46% -20.0%
20% -28.7% 38% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,126.17 · official $11,084.19 (match) · 957 history records