Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:30:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffee…c768 crypto 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44 (-6%) realized −$40 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate53%45W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$6
14 days−$19
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$64
crypto 30% +$1
tech 17% +$11
politics 9% −$31
world 8% +$10
sports 3% +$6
finance 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -8.0% -16.8% 73% 45% -4.8%
≤30d 49 -14.9% -23.0% 55% 35% -17.7%
≤90d 80 -9.6% -18.3% 52% 32% -15.9%
all 85 -11.3% -19.8% 53% 31% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 31% -16.9%
10% -27.4% 20% -24.8%
15% -34.5% 14% -32.1%
20% -40.9% 11% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$40
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses45 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)85 / 92
History coverage169d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? Yes 44¢ 51¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-52%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 Over 31¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+222%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $17 +$6 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $14 +$2 +14%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -16%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $8 +$2 +22%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +49%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 07 $3 −$2 -70%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 07 $4 +$9 +212%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Wesley So win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 02 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$2 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $1 $0 -5%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 01 $4 −$2 -36%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 01 $2 +$2 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 31 $1 +$2 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 31 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $40 +$10 +26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 26? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 26 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 24? May 24 $2 +$7 +313%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 54m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 SELL Over 31¢ $5 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $3 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 4d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Down 23¢ $4 4d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 76¢ $13 4d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 26¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.15 · official $31.92 (match) · 282 history records