Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:04:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffeb…f657 sports 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$99 (+10%) realized +$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%40W / 50L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$22
14 days−$31
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$34
sports 28% +$16
other 6% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -8.8% -17.4% 27% 27% -14.7%
≤30d 41 -8.8% -17.5% 27% 27% -4.3%
≤90d 87 -3.7% -12.9% 44% 44% -5.2%
all 90 -3.3% -12.5% 44% 43% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 43% -4.2%
10% -20.8% 38% -13.3%
15% -28.5% 30% -21.7%
20% -35.5% 20% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses40 / 50
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage94d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$12 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$8 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$11 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$7 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$5 -33%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$2 -11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$10 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 +$21 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$7 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$7 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$5 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $17 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $17 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $18 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $14 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $11 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 07 $17 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 02 $22 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 02 $17 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 01 $18 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 01 $7 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 30 $71 +$92 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 28 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? May 25 $1 $0 -9%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs Apr 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Apr 03 $7 +$3 +41%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 03 $6 $0 -5%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 27 $11 +$4 +40%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 27 $11 −$8 -74%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $14 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $16 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $29 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $17 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $11 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $18 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $12 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $16 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $18 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $21 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $19 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 250 history records