Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:55:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xffea…06c0
world · 118 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3,091 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,114 · open +$28
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,270
Realized−$3,114
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses57 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)114 / 118
History coverage55d
Avg bet$709
Trades / day63.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 5 History 114 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$881
7 days−$734
14 days−$927
30 days−$2,349
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $3,415 $3,512 +$98 (+3%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $741 $743 +$2 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 8¢ 5¢ $19 $11 −$8 (-41%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $67 $3 −$64 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? No 92¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $382 $0 −$382 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $126 $0 −$126 (-100%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No 14¢ 0¢ $435 $0 −$435 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 24¢ 0¢ $260 $0 −$260 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $108 −$38 -35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $4,736 +$168 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 13 $216 +$3 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $33 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3,314 −$237 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $21 $0 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $553 −$188 -34%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $326 −$126 -39%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $457 −$435 -95%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $161 +$23 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,358 −$52 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 10 $9 −$1 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $98 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $649 +$121 +19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $131 +$24 +18%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $24 +$5 +22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 05 $16 $0 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $5,629 +$138 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $251 +$9 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $2,213 +$69 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $1,521 +$561 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 31 $411 −$385 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $3,560 −$724 -20%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? May 31 $45 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $2,001 +$136 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $903 −$122 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $74 −$53 -71%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $1,201 +$25 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $1,316 +$14 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $1,305 +$141 +11%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? May 26 $7 −$1 -17%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $105 −$8 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $914 −$366 -40%
Internet Access restored in Iran by December 31, 2026? May 26 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 25 $19 $0 -2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $4,880 +$173 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $485 +$110 +23%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 25 $206 +$21 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $385 +$106 +28%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 25 $51 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $988 −$532 -54%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 24 $9 −$1 -8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 23 $196 +$31 +16%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $591 −$91 -16%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $440 −$168 -38%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $157 +$13 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $2,123 +$95 +4%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? May 22 $150 −$4 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 67% −$2,695
other 13% +$137
crypto 10% +$222
culture 4% +$98
sports 2% +$98
tech 2% −$754
politics 2% −$11
economics 0% −$181
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 9m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $339 37m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $36 39m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $298 39m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $14 41m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $559 42m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 50m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $13 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $195 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $15 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $4 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 70¢ $15 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $30 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $15 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 71¢ $17 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $22 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 73¢ $18 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $46 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $47 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $6 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $6 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $0 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -15.8% -23.8% 38% 25% -15.2%
≤30d 76 -11.5% -19.9% 50% 16% -12.3%
≤90d 114 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 15% -12.5%
all 114 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 15% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover63.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 15% -12.5%
10% -22.5% 7% -20.9%
15% ← realistic here -30.0% 5% -28.5%
20% -36.9% 4% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,270.33 · official $4,271.07 (match) · 3500 history records