Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:24:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FF 0xffe8…7cd0 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$308 (+32%) realized +$481 · open −$173
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$338
other 31% −$2
crypto 24% +$398
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -7.9% -16.7% 33% 33% +43.5%
≤30d 3 -7.9% -16.7% 33% 33% +43.5%
≤90d 3 -7.9% -16.7% 33% 33% +43.5%
all 3 -7.9% -16.7% 33% 33% +43.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 33% +43.5%
10% -24.7% 33% +29.7%
15% -32.0% 33% +17.2%
20% -38.6% 33% +5.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +59% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +59% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$398 vs −$84 · ×4.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.38 per $1 lost it wins $2.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$367
Realized+$481
Unrealized−$173
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $285 $283 −$2 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 30¢ $100 $60 −$40 (-40%)
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 13¢ 2¢ $154 $24 −$130 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $69 −$67 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 25 $226 +$398 +176%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Jun 25 $103 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $294 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $158 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $226 5h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson BUY Clara Tauson 15¢ $103 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $366.55 · official $397.19 · 7 history records