Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FF 0xffe5…fe3f world 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$110 (-39%) realized −$117 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$12
world 35% −$61
other 20% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-54.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 1 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -7.9%
≤90d 2 -49.1% -53.9% 50% 0% -40.8%
all 11 -49.9% -54.6% 27% 18% -61.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.6% 18% -61.6%
10% -59.0% 18% -65.3%
15% -62.9% 9% -68.6%
20% -66.6% 0% -71.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$21 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$117
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage160d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? Yes 57¢ 66¢ $44 $51 +$7 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 23 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Apr 02 $24 −$24 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 26 $10 −$6 -62%
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 26 $14 −$9 -62%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jan 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? Jan 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? Jan 23 $25 −$25 -100%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Jan 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 17 $13 +$5 +35%
Will the US strike Mexico next? Jan 15 $15 −$15 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 15 $11 +$4 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? BUY Yes 57¢ $44 1h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes $44 1h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $7 38d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $37 38d
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? BUY Yes 40¢ $9 147d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? SELL Yes $4 147d
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $6 147d
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 147d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 147d
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $14 150d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes $25 150d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 11¢ $25 150d
US strike on Mexico by March 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $42 155d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes $10 155d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 155d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 23¢ $18 156d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 158d
Will the US strike Mexico next? BUY Yes $15 158d
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $15 159d
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $11 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.94 · official $50.94 (match) · 29 history records