Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:57:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FF 0xffe4…9fca sports 337 markets active 1h ago coverage 361d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-9%) realized −$39 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%118W / 160L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$11
14 days+$8
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$4
other 31% −$7
world 9% −$10
economics 7% −$14
politics 6% −$10
tech 1% +$3
culture 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +36.1% +23.1% 43% 43% +12.6%
≤30d 55 +22.9% +11.2% 42% 42% +1.3%
≤90d 80 +4.3% -5.6% 38% 36% -11.7%
all 278 -2.5% -11.8% 42% 41% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 41% -17.7%
10% -20.2% 35% -25.6%
15% -27.9% 32% -32.8%
20% -35.0% 26% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

361d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses118 / 160
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions46
Markets (closed)278 / 337
History coverage361d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 278 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+77%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Australia be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Portugal 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Algeria 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 148 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Jun 16 $1 +$15 +1465%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +82%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +238%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$4 +344%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $2 +$5 +238%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 17 $1 +$4 +377%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $1 $0 +11%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $1 $0 +42%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $1 +$1 +72%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Iraq vs. Norway end BUY $1 57m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY $1 57m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Iraq vs. Norway end in BUY $1 57m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 72¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Zealan BUY $1 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New SELL 28¢ $16 3h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $1 14h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $1 14h
Will Australia be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 22h
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World BUY Yes 52¢ $1 22h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $1 22h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New BUY $1 22h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $2 22h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 20¢ $1 27h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $1 27h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 14¢ $1 27h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $1 27h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 25¢ $1 27h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 62¢ $1 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-1 BUY $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.74 · official $48.75 · 584 history records