trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 16 | +301.2% | +263.0% | 38% | 31% | +26.8% |
| ≤30d | 18 | +262.4% | +227.9% | 39% | 28% | +5.6% |
| ≤90d | 18 | +262.4% | +227.9% | 39% | 28% | +5.6% |
| all | 18 | +262.4% | +227.9% | 39% | 28% | +5.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +227.9% | 28% | +5.6% |
| 10% | +196.5% | 22% | -4.5% |
| 15% | +167.9% | 22% | -13.8% |
| 20% | +141.6% | 22% | -22.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 86¢ | 86¢ | $76 | $75 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 26? | No | 0¢ | 2¢ | $0 | $2 | +$2 (+1600%) |
| Will Vitinha win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+14%) |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$0 (-25%) |
| Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+125%) |
| Will Uzbekistan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 2¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+288%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 25? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-92%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 25? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-93%) |
| Will John Beccia be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-42%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 25? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-83%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? | Jun 25 | $7 | +$79 | +1054% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? | Jun 25 | $2 | +$44 | +1905% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on June 25? | Jun 25 | $4 | +$25 | +653% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 25? | Jun 25 | $0 | +$15 | +3650% |
| Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? | Jun 24 | $0 | $0 | -69% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? | Jun 24 | $1 | −$1 | -57% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 25? | Jun 24 | $3 | −$3 | -91% |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? | Jun 24 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 24? | Jun 24 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? | Jun 24 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02? | Jun 24 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 24? | Jun 24 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Jonathan White be the Democratic nominee for MD-04? | Jun 24 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 24? | Jun 23 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? | Jun 22 | $159 | +$24 | +15% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Jun 20 | $340 | +$34 | +10% |
| Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid | Jun 03 | $76 | −$76 | -100% |
| Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Jun 03 | $261 | +$10 | +4% |