Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:01:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FF 0xffe2…2957 sports 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,236 (+15%) realized +$8,255 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%67W / 60L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$427per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$343est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$2,426now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$654
7 days+$5,957
14 days+$7,189
30 days+$7,747
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$6,142
other 12% +$1,524
crypto 3% −$79
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +47.8% +33.7% 75% 75% +29.3%
≤30d 33 +5.2% -4.8% 42% 42% +18.0%
≤90d 36 +4.1% -5.8% 42% 42% +15.9%
all 127 -4.7% -13.8% 53% 51% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 51% +4.2%
10% -22.0% 46% -5.8%
15% -29.6% 34% -14.9%
20% -36.5% 24% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$269 vs −$174 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$2,426
Realized+$8,255
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses67 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$343
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage256d
Avg bet$427
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 63¢ 62¢ $2,446 $2,426 −$19 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $557 +$392 +70%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $203 +$182 +90%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $101 +$80 +79%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $3,942 +$2,879 +73%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,918 +$1,520 +52%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3,805 +$1,002 +26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,887 −$79 -4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $467 −$19 -4%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $467 −$145 -31%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $205 +$96 +46%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $667 +$87 +13%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2,787 −$1,683 -60%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 +$214 +105%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1,016 −$22 -2%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$16 -51%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $154 −$18 -12%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $154 −$18 -12%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$27 -26%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $72 −$6 -9%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 −$8 -16%
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -25%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $164 −$19 -11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $506 −$500 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2,483 +$2,045 +82%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1,187 +$1,296 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $204 +$322 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $638 +$278 +44%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 31 $241 +$207 +86%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 29 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 29 $51 −$50 -97%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 24 $435 −$393 -90%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 24 $102 +$181 +177%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $294 −$291 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 4 Winner Mar 05 $336 −$336 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner Mar 05 $242 +$94 +39%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Mar 05 $138 +$104 +75%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Mar 05 $270 −$132 -49%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 04 $119 −$119 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 04 $285 −$166 -58%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 27 $491 +$130 +27%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 26 $459 +$115 +25%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 4 Winner Feb 26 $142 +$67 +47%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 25 $147 +$20 +14%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 4 Winner Feb 09 $503 +$513 +102%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 3 Winner Feb 09 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Feb 09 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Feb 09 $30 +$128 +427%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $2,473 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $355 21h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $203 41h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $101 41h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $202 41h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $6,821 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $996 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $7 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $2,939 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,438 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $2,918 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2,920 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $1,804 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 57¢ $1,808 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,882 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $1,887 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $5 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $1,997 6d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 59¢ $448 6d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $467 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 6¢ $124 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 14¢ $301 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 21¢ $439 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 21¢ $1,104 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $4 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $1,256 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 9¢ $205 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 9¢ $205 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 14¢ $308 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,426.47 · official $2,426.47 (match) · 284 history records