Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:56:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xffe0…919e
weather · 1572 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,991 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,022 · open +$31
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,051
Realized−$2,022
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses1404 / 161
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1565 / 1572
History coverage65d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day30.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 9 History 1565 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$557
7 days−$678
14 days−$677
30 days−$1,670
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $200 $210 +$11 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? No 98¢ 88¢ $200 $181 −$19 (-10%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $90 $118 +$28 (+31%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 64¢ 69¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? Yes 89¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 15? Yes 99¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 3? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 1? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on April 28? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 1? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 3? No 73¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 34-35°F on May 6? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on April 28? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on April 30? Yes 77¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 16? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Yes 96¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $290 $0 −$290 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Jun 14 $290 −$290 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Jun 14 $269 −$269 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$6 +6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $100 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 100-119 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $181 −$180 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 07 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 6? Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 90°F or higher on June 6? Jun 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 6? Jun 07 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 6? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 94°F or higher on June 6? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 6? Jun 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 6? Jun 07 $40 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 94°F or higher on June 6? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 6? Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 07 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 +$5 +51%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $100 +$1 +2%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $201 +$16 +8%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $100 +$1 +2%
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 88% −$1,000
politics 4% −$212
crypto 4% +$131
other 4% −$81
world 0% −$309
sports 0% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 51m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 59m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 35h
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 35h
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 40h
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 89¢ $100 2d
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $60 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 9? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 4d
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 4d
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will NYC Mayor post 100-119 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 5d
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 5d
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -6.6% -15.5% 92% 3% -24.2%
≤30d 376 -5.1% -14.1% 93% 4% -12.3%
≤90d 1565 -3.0% -12.3% 90% 9% -10.6%
all 1565 -3.0% -12.3% 90% 9% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 9% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 5% -19.2%
15% -28.3% 3% -27.0%
20% -35.3% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,050.64 · official $1,050.65 (match) · 3500 history records