Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:41:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FF 0xffe0…b44c crypto 122 markets active 3h ago coverage 718d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,156 (-5%) realized −$2,194 · open +$38
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate74%88W / 31L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$387per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$522now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$798
30 days−$798
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$1,518
other 29% −$1,181
sports 20% +$575
politics 3% −$20
world 2% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -0.6% -10.1% 62% 50% -59.7%
≤90d 8 -0.6% -10.1% 62% 50% -59.7%
all 119 -9.9% -18.4% 74% 33% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 33% -13.7%
10% -26.2% 13% -22.0%
15% -33.4% 8% -29.5%
20% -39.9% 4% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$181 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

718d coverage
Net worth$522
Realized−$2,194
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses88 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)119 / 122
History coverage718d
Avg bet$387
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? No 71¢ 97¢ $100 $137 +$37 (+37%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $84 $84 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $143 +$57 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $165 +$35 +21%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $189 +$11 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $163 −$151 -93%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 12 $310 −$308 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $456 −$455 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$10 +188%
Bolsonaro guilty? Sep 10 $870 +$37 +4%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 13 $508 −$410 -81%
Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 10 $188 +$12 +6%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 09 $458 +$42 +9%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Palmeiras win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 24 $85 +$15 +18%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 24 $379 +$21 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on June 6? Jun 10 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on June 6? Jun 10 $95 −$95 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on June 6? Jun 10 $82 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? Jan 12 $172 −$172 -100%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Dec 27 $1,720 +$270 +16%
Will Ethereum hit $3,300 in December? Dec 20 $924 −$924 -100%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 20? Dec 19 $56 −$15 -27%
Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6? Dec 06 $136 −$130 -95%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000.00 in December? Dec 06 $637 +$62 +10%
Will Ethereum hit $4,100.00 in December? Dec 06 $75 +$15 +20%
Will Ethereum hit $3,000 in December? Dec 05 $176 +$8 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3,750 in November? Dec 01 $420 +$142 +34%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? Nov 29 $510 +$69 +14%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Nov 29 $235 −$105 -45%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29? Nov 27 $108 −$84 -78%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in November? Nov 25 $130 +$70 +54%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? Nov 25 $101 +$15 +15%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? Nov 24 $951 +$49 +5%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Nov 21 $256 −$224 -88%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 17 $138 +$62 +45%
Will a Republican win Alaska Presidential Election? Nov 08 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $58 +$42 +72%
Will a Republican win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $95 +$5 +5%
Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $91 +$9 +10%
Will a Democrat win Colorado Presidential Election? Nov 07 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin new all time high before election? Nov 05 $154 +$46 +30%
Ethereum above $2,600 on November 1? Nov 01 $157 +$43 +27%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in October? Oct 28 $513 −$438 -85%
Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? Oct 28 $448 −$31 -7%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October? Oct 27 $86 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin above $69,000 on October 25? Oct 25 $514 +$5 +1%
Will Portugal beat Scotland? Oct 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Poland beat Croatia? Oct 16 $22 +$8 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $302 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 71¢ $101 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $12 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 75¢ $10 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $310 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $143 12d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $165 12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $456 12d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $189 12d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $163 12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 12d
Bolsonaro guilty? SELL Yes 93¢ $25 287d
Bolsonaro guilty? SELL Yes 90¢ $270 287d
Bolsonaro guilty? SELL Yes 90¢ $63 287d
Bolsonaro guilty? SELL Yes 91¢ $544 287d
Bolsonaro guilty? SELL Yes 90¢ $5 292d
Bolsonaro guilty? BUY Yes 87¢ $810 295d
Bolsonaro guilty? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 295d
Bolsonaro guilty? BUY Yes 87¢ $13 295d
Bolsonaro guilty? BUY Yes 87¢ $26 295d
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? SELL No $2 345d
Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $188 350d
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $304 354d
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $414 354d
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $154 354d
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $96 365d
Will Paris Saint-Germain win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $141 369d
Will Paris Saint-Germain win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $189 369d
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY Yes $0 369d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $522.26 · official $522.26 (match) · 420 history records