trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 16 | +0.5% | -9.0% | 100% | 0% | -9.0% |
| ≤30d | 17 | +1.2% | -8.4% | 100% | 6% | -3.5% |
| ≤90d | 23 | -15.0% | -23.1% | 83% | 13% | -7.0% |
| all | 27 | -23.9% | -31.1% | 74% | 11% | -61.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -31.1% | 11% | -61.8% |
| 10% | -37.7% | 0% | -65.5% |
| 15% | -43.7% | 0% | -68.8% |
| 20% | -49.3% | 0% | -71.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 12? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 12? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | May 24 | $18 | +$2 | +12% |
| Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | May 13 | $15 | +$3 | +17% |
| Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Apr 25 | $13 | +$2 | +17% |
| Rockets vs. Bulls | Apr 10 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide | Mar 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Flyers vs. Sharks | Mar 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets | Mar 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Celtics vs. Cavaliers | Mar 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | Mar 17 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Kings vs. Rangers | Mar 17 | $96 | −$96 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 | Feb 27 | $1 | $0 | +1% |