Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FF 0xffde…098a other 21 markets active 2d ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$788 (-32%) realized −$867 · open +$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$879now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$20
sports 26% −$641
politics 13% −$72
crypto 3% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 71% 71% -1.4%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 71% 71% -1.4%
≤90d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 71% 71% -1.4%
all 17 -23.8% -31.0% 59% 29% -58.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 29% -58.2%
10% -37.6% 18% -62.2%
15% -43.7% 18% -65.9%
20% -49.2% 6% -69.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$139 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$879
Realized−$867
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)17 / 21
History coverage225d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $200 $240 +$40 (+20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $200 $237 +$37 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $200 $225 +$25 (+12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $200 $178 −$22 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Ben Shelton vs Felix Auger-Al Nov 12 $400 −$400 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor F Nov 11 $221 −$221 -100%
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Nov 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Nov 11 $29 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Nov 11 $38 $0 +1%
Will James Solomon win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election? Nov 11 $307 −$72 -23%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 5? Nov 07 $20 +$2 +10%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 5? Nov 07 $26 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 5? Nov 05 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $206 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $205 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 4d
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Ben Shelton vs Felix Auger-Al BUY Shelton 80¢ $400 220d
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor F BUY Fritz 57¢ $221 221d
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? SELL Yes 95¢ $20 221d
Will Base launch a token in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $29 221d
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $38 221d
Will James Solomon win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election? SELL Yes 85¢ $133 221d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 224d
Will James Solomon win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election? SELL Yes 65¢ $102 224d
Will James Solomon win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election? BUY Yes 98¢ $307 227d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 5? BUY Down 93¢ $30 227d
Will Base launch a token in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $29 227d
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 227d
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $38 227d
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 5? BUY Up 91¢ $20 227d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 5? BUY Down 93¢ $30 227d
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 5? BUY Down 92¢ $26 227d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $878.77 · official $878.77 (match) · 40 history records