Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:30:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffd6…ff4b world 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$5 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$1
sports 14% −$3
other 12% $0
weather 12% +$10
politics 7% −$4
tech 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 75% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 12 -6.1% -15.0% 42% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -6.1% -15.0% 42% 0% -9.6%
all 29 +6.2% -3.9% 55% 14% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 14% -8.9%
10% -13.1% 10% -17.6%
15% -21.5% 7% -25.6%
20% -29.2% 7% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage473d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $39 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $17 $0 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $13 −$2 -12%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $17 +$2 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -75%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $23 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $51 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $22 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on March 11? Mar 12 $21 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.15 on March 7? Mar 11 $21 $0 +1%
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today? Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before April? Mar 07 $23 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on March 5? Mar 06 $27 +$7 +25%
Temple vs. Tulsa Mar 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Davidson vs. Loyola Chicago Mar 04 $28 −$17 -63%
Le-Moyne vs. Central Connecticut Mar 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 5? Mar 04 $28 +$3 +12%
Will Trump's 2025 joint address get >46m viewers? Mar 04 $43 −$3 -6%
South Dakota vs. Denver Mar 04 $2 +$9 +376%
Loyola Maryland vs. Navy Mar 04 $16 +$16 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $32 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $0 24h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $3 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $14 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $17 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $14 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $1 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $4 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $3 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $3 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes $0 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes $0 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes $0 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes $0 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes $0 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes $2 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $0 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.08 · official $31.08 (match) · 103 history records