trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 75% | 0% | -8.4% |
| ≤30d | 12 | -6.1% | -15.0% | 42% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -6.1% | -15.0% | 42% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 29 | +6.2% | -3.9% | 55% | 14% | -8.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -3.9% | 14% | -8.9% |
| 10% | -13.1% | 10% | -17.6% |
| 15% | -21.5% | 7% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -29.2% | 7% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 57¢ | 56¢ | $32 | $31 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 16 | $39 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 14 | $17 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Jun 11 | $13 | −$2 | -12% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 10 | $17 | +$2 | +10% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 10 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 10 | $2 | −$1 | -75% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 08 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 06 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 06 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 06 | $51 | $0 | -0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 05 | $51 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 04 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 07 | $3 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? | Mar 15 | $22 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on March 11? | Mar 12 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Ripple above $2.15 on March 7? | Mar 11 | $21 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today? | Mar 11 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before April? | Mar 07 | $23 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on March 5? | Mar 06 | $27 | +$7 | +25% |
| Temple vs. Tulsa | Mar 06 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Davidson vs. Loyola Chicago | Mar 04 | $28 | −$17 | -63% |
| Le-Moyne vs. Central Connecticut | Mar 04 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 5? | Mar 04 | $28 | +$3 | +12% |
| Will Trump's 2025 joint address get >46m viewers? | Mar 04 | $43 | −$3 | -6% |
| South Dakota vs. Denver | Mar 04 | $2 | +$9 | +376% |
| Loyola Maryland vs. Navy | Mar 04 | $16 | +$16 | +100% |