Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:20:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffd5…775c other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-9%) realized +$4 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$5
crypto 18% −$2
sports 9% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -9.5% -18.1% 33% 33% -37.7%
≤30d 3 -9.5% -18.1% 33% 33% -37.7%
≤90d 3 -9.5% -18.1% 33% 33% -37.7%
all 3 -9.5% -18.1% 33% 33% -37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 33% -37.7%
10% -25.9% 33% -43.7%
15% -33.1% 33% -49.1%
20% -39.6% 33% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium leading at halftime? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 80¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -17%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +88%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.87 · official $1.87 (match) · 10 history records