Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:53:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FF 0xffd4…73af other 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$345 (-2%) realized −$338 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,258per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$1,043now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$136
crypto 6% +$98
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -13.0% -21.3% 58% 42% -8.2%
≤30d 12 -13.0% -21.3% 58% 42% -8.2%
≤90d 12 -13.0% -21.3% 58% 42% -8.2%
all 12 -13.0% -21.3% 58% 42% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 42% -8.2%
10% -28.8% 8% -17.0%
15% -35.7% 8% -25.0%
20% -42.0% 8% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$356 vs −$450 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,043
Realized−$338
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1,258
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $1,000 $994 −$6 (-1%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,335 +$115 +9%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2,841 +$454 +16%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $108 −$77 -72%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,533 +$939 +61%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $466 +$61 +13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$9 -17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,013 +$98 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $205 −$160 -78%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $614 −$534 -87%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,193 +$410 +19%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3,349 −$1,473 -44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,840 +$416 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 10m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,014 48m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 47¢ $1,450 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,026 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 42¢ $103 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 37¢ $103 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 21¢ $103 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 23¢ $31 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 79¢ $102 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $812 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $2,029 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,472 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $527 28h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 96¢ $202 30h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $264 31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,533 37h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $43 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 12¢ $45 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,013 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $205 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 8¢ $80 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $614 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $264 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,929 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 49¢ $1,876 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $3,349 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $2,840 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,042.66 · official $1,042.66 (match) · 33 history records