Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:17:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffd3…577a other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-3%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$1
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$22
sports 26% +$14
politics 14% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -7.4% -16.2% 40% 40% -10.0%
≤30d 18 -10.7% -19.2% 39% 33% -13.6%
≤90d 18 -10.7% -19.2% 39% 33% -13.6%
all 18 -10.7% -19.2% 39% 33% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 33% -13.6%
10% -26.9% 33% -21.9%
15% -34.0% 33% -29.4%
20% -40.4% 33% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage242d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $17 +$13 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $24 +$26 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $17 −$13 -81%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 −$8 -76%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jun 08 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Jun 08 $37 −$4 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $31 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $31 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 20h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $17 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $14 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 17¢ $3 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 85¢ $17 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 14¢ $2 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $10 10d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $11 241d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 241d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? SELL No 21¢ $21 241d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No 27¢ $19 241d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No 20¢ $8 241d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records