Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:38:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffd0…369c other 792 markets active 28d ago coverage 194d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 193d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$22,470 (+0%) realized +$22,470 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%757W / 35L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,216per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 194d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% +$11,004
world 24% +$2,922
sports 14% −$282
other 13% −$109,097
tech 11% −$8,601
culture 7% −$104,257
finance 1% +$95
crypto 1% +$532
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 3 -32.9% -39.3% 67% 0% -9.0%
all 792 +4.2% -5.8% 96% 2% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 2% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 1% -21.2%
15% -23.0% 1% -28.8%
20% -30.6% 1% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$3,683) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$232 vs −$10,956 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22,470
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses757 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)792 / 792
History coverage194d ⚠
Avg bet$9,216
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 792 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,005 +$7 +1%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 05 $1,009 +$6 +1%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 1? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 18 $442,620 +$1,550 +0%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $81,054 −$73,167 -90%
Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $39,785 −$621 -2%
Will Kate Hudson win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $29,970 +$31 +0%
Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $19,980 +$21 +0%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $13,762 −$13,753 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $39,960 +$2,140 +5%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Original Score at the 98th Acad Mar 16 $1,123 +$1 +0%
Will Perfectly a Strangeness win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98 Mar 16 $1,265 +$1 +0%
Will Train Dreams win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $3,337 +$3 +0%
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 16 $3,940 +$4,763 +121%
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $110 +$64,769 +59027%
Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at t Mar 16 $1,136 +$240 +21%
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Aw Mar 16 $3,227 +$3 +0%
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 16 $5,651 +$6 +0%
Will The Ugly Stepsister win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th A Mar 16 $443 $0 +0%
Will Oklahoma advance to the National Championship? Mar 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Utah Valley advance to the National Championship? Mar 16 $1,598 +$2 +0%
Will Kokuho win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 16 $1,053 +$1 +0%
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th A Mar 16 $65,663 +$66 +0%
Will Justin Rose finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 THE PLAYERS Champion Mar 16 $664 +$1 +0%
Will Akshay Bhatia finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 THE PLAYERS Champi Mar 16 $510 +$1 +0%
Will Yale advance to the Quarterfinals? Mar 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Miami (Ohio) qualify for the NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will West Virginia qualify for the NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will Indiana qualify for the NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $85 $0 +0%
Will Seton Hall qualify for the NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $197 $0 +0%
Will Florida State qualify for the NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will Oklahoma qualify for the NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $308 $0 +0%
Will UCF qualify for the NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $328 $0 +0%
Will Saint Louis qualify for the NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $453 +$1 +0%
Will Santa Clara qualify for the NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $460 +$1 +0%
Will Cincinnati qualify for the NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $699 +$1 +0%
Will San Diego State qualify for the NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $775 +$1 +0%
Will New Mexico qualify for the NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $874 +$1 +0%
Will Virginia Tech qualify for the NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $874 +$1 +0%
Will Stanford qualify for the NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $874 +$1 +0%
Will Auburn qualify for the NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $1,469 +$2 +0%
Will Missouri qualify for the NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $12,843 +$14 +0%
Will Emma Stone win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $64,038 −$64,037 -100%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $2,098 −$2,098 -100%
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $4,750 −$4,750 -100%
Will Jacob Bridgeman finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 THE PLAYERS Cham Mar 16 $639 +$1 +0%
Will Jacob Bridgeman finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 THE PLAYERS Cham Mar 16 $639 +$1 +0%
Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 THE PLAYERS Champio Mar 16 $724 +$1 +0%
Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 THE PLAYERS Champio Mar 16 $1,084 +$1 +0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 THE PLAYERS Cha Mar 16 $1,204 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,005 27d
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,009 58d
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 1? BUY Up 0¢ $1 88d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $73,012 105d
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 105d
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 105d
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 105d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $49,968 105d
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 105d
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 105d
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards BUY Yes 100¢ $1 105d
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 105d
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards BUY Yes 100¢ $1 105d
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards BUY Yes 100¢ $3 105d
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards BUY Yes 100¢ $148 105d
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 105d
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 105d
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards BUY Yes 100¢ $1 105d
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 105d
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 105d
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards BUY Yes 100¢ $50 105d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa BUY Yes 100¢ $6,483 105d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa BUY Yes 100¢ $12 105d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa BUY Yes 100¢ $13 105d
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards BUY Yes 100¢ $32 105d
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 105d
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 105d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa BUY Yes 100¢ $13 105d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa BUY Yes 100¢ $3 105d
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards BUY Yes 100¢ $1 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records