Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FF 0xffd0…93fc sports 420 markets active 0h ago coverage 230d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 230d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$27,518 (-12%) realized −$27,542 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate54%217W / 188L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$542per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$1,705est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$3,133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$11
14 days+$99
30 days−$5,371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$31,334
other 11% +$1,343
world 1% +$1,341
politics 0% +$4
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 +40.3% +27.0% 55% 15% -9.5%
≤30d 148 +25.3% +13.3% 50% 16% -17.0%
≤90d 222 +12.9% +2.2% 51% 26% -20.8%
all 405 +9.1% -1.3% 54% 37% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.3% 37% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -10.7% 34% -29.1%
15% -19.4% 32% -36.0%
20% -27.3% 28% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$900) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$286 vs −$483 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$3,133
Realized−$27,542
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses217 / 188
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$1,705
Open positions14
Markets (closed)405 / 420
History coverage230d ⚠
Avg bet$542
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 405 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 60¢ $590 $600 +$10 (+2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in Second Half No 78¢ 80¢ $541 $557 +$15 (+3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Under 32¢ 32¢ $524 $526 +$2 (+0%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 78¢ 78¢ $467 $465 −$2 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Over 43¢ 44¢ $430 $435 +$5 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 38¢ 38¢ $313 $317 +$4 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Second half draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
DR Congo to win the second half? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $40 $33 −$8 (-19%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 35¢ 36¢ $31 $33 +$1 (+4%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 79¢ 94¢ $24 $28 +$4 (+19%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 76¢ 90¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+19%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 67¢ 14¢ $22 $4 −$18 (-80%)
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 21¢ 21¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $71 $0 -0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $227 +$1 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $363 +$9 +2%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $222 −$6 -3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $1,190 −$12 -1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $82 $0 -0%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $470 −$4 -1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $219 +$12 +6%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,020 $0 -0%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $890 −$19 -2%
Senegal to win the second half? Jun 16 $830 +$20 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1,980 −$59 -3%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $98 +$2 +2%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $370 +$10 +3%
France vs. Senegal: Second half draw? Jun 16 $56 −$8 -14%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $215 +$10 +5%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $898 −$6 -1%
France to win the second half? Jun 16 $556 +$1 +0%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $110 −$3 -3%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $990 −$4 -0%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $740 −$6 -1%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1,450 +$42 +3%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $499 −$7 -1%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $640 $0 -0%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1,040 −$20 -2%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,681 +$31 +1%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $820 −$10 -1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $58 $0 +1%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $980 −$19 -2%
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $90 −$1 -2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $360 +$6 +2%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $187 +$12 +6%
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $170 $0 +0%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $740 +$10 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $1,346 −$32 -2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $360 $0 -0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $495 $0 -0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $980 $0 -0%
Ecuador to win the second half? Jun 14 $262 +$3 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire to win the second half? Jun 14 $375 +$3 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Second half draw? Jun 14 $3 $0 -17%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $570 −$7 -1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $516 $0 -0%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $468 +$6 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $740 −$18 -2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $192 +$10 +5%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $169 +$1 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $282 +$6 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $616 +$11 +2%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 14 $312 +$127 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $13 6m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $71 6m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $15 7m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $4 7m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $14 8m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $3 11m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $14 12m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $38 12m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $4 15m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $15 18m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $144 18m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $3 19m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $22 20m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $20 21m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $0 21m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $230 21m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $9 22m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $14 22m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $5 22m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $144 22m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $25 26m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $3 26m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $1 28m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $2 28m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $145 29m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $49 30m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $0 32m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $27 33m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $24 33m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $0 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,133.08 · official $3,129.66 (match) · 3500 history records