Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:53:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FF 0xffcd…3e6b crypto 572 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$8,217 (+13%) realized +$7,790 · open +$427
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate79%453W / 117L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day50.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$11
14 days+$41
30 days+$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$10,841
other 3% +$347
sports 0% +$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -4.0% -13.2% 73% 73% -4.4%
≤30d 463 -0.1% -9.6% 86% 30% -6.8%
≤90d 570 -1.9% -11.2% 79% 32% +5.9%
all 570 -1.9% -11.2% 79% 32% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 32% +5.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 21% -4.2%
15% -27.5% 13% -13.5%
20% -34.6% 9% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$70 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$1,168
Realized+$7,790
Unrealized+$427
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses453 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)570 / 572
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$113
Trades / day50.6
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 570 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $720 $1,157 +$437 (+61%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $21 $11 −$10 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$10 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$13 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 08 $11 +$18 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 07 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 06 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 05 $11 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 04 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 03 $11 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 02 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 01 $30 +$2 +6%
HYPE Up or Down - May 31, 4AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
HYPE Up or Down - May 31, 6AM ET May 31 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 31 $10 +$13 +128%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 31 $11 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 31 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 31 $20 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 31 $11 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 31 $11 +$2 +17%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 31 $10 +$1 +10%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 31 $10 +$14 +135%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 31 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 31 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 31 $11 +$3 +25%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 31 $15 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 31 $10 +$9 +90%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 31 $20 +$4 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 31 $11 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 31 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 31 $11 +$4 +34%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 31 $10 +$15 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 31 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 31 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 21h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $721 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $21 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $11 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $12 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $13 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $11 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $11 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $11 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $11 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $11 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $11 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $11 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 20d
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $20 20d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 20d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 20d
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $11 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,167.90 · official $1,167.90 (match) · 3500 history records