Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:13:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

FF 0xffcc…4f93 crypto 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$49 (+6%) realized +$181 · open −$132

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip

Net edge+36%after slip

Net WR90%break-even

Win rate90%9W / 1L

Drawdown2%max

Avg bet$62per market

Trades / day28.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit92%portable

Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +90%

net ROI/market (all)+60.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+76.9%	+60.1%	90%	90%	+21.0%
≤30d	10	+76.9%	+60.1%	90%	90%	+21.0%
≤90d	10	+76.9%	+60.1%	90%	90%	+21.0%
all	10	+76.9%	+60.1%	90%	90%	+21.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover28.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+60.1%	90%	+21.0%
10% ← realistic here	+44.8%	90%	+9.4%
15%	+30.8%	70%	-1.1%
20%	+18.0%	50%	-10.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 40% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +77% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$20 vs −$3 · ×6.96 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×62.6 per $1 lost it wins $62.6

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$136

Realized+$181

Unrealized−$132

Win rate (resolved)90%

Wins / losses9 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)10 / 13

History coverage1d

Avg bet$62

Trades / day28.0

Drawdown2%

Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	57¢	62¢	$125	$135	+$10 (+8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	42¢	0¢	$110	$1	−$109 (-99%)
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals	Yes	23¢	0¢	$33	$0	−$33 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Jun 19	$127	−$3	-2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Jun 19	$5	+$4	+72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Jun 19	$31	+$19	+61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Jun 19	$108	+$39	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Jun 19	$101	+$25	+25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Jun 19	$26	+$18	+70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Jun 19	$5	+$19	+351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 19	$31	+$8	+27%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$20	+$17	+86%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	Jun 19	$81	+$35	+43%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$26	2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$103	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	BUY Down	8¢	$5	5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$103	8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$5	10m
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	9¢	$5	17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	BUY Up	80¢	$101	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$26	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	SELL Up	98¢	$9	24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$5	27m
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$26	34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$5	34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	SELL Down	97¢	$146	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$102	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$5	43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$101	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$5	1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$38	1h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	100¢	$95	1h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	37¢	$3	1h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	40¢	$20	2h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	61¢	$20	2h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	62¢	$81	2h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5	BUY Over	53¢	$20	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.40 · official $134.21 · 35 history records