Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:57:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffcb…fe0f crypto 826 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$102 (-3%) realized −$130 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate77%636W / 189L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$18
14 days−$136
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$97
sports 1% −$29
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 543 -0.1% -9.6% 90% 44% -10.1%
≤30d 825 -4.3% -13.4% 77% 44% -12.9%
≤90d 825 -4.3% -13.4% 77% 44% -12.9%
all 825 -4.3% -13.4% 77% 44% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 44% -12.9%
10% -21.7% 11% -21.2%
15% -29.2% 11% -28.8%
20% -36.2% 10% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses636 / 189
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)825 / 826
History coverage50d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 825 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1755 history records