Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffca…0f77 world 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate47%45W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$7
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$18
politics 15% +$8
finance 4% +$2
other 3% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.7% -11.1% 17% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 19 -1.4% -10.8% 26% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 23 -1.9% -11.2% 30% 0% -9.7%
all 95 -1.3% -10.7% 47% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 4% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses45 / 50
Open positions2
Markets (closed)95 / 97
History coverage459d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $286 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $148 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $130 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $304 −$2 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $142 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $15 −$1 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $168 −$5 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $218 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $143 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $152 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $1,012 +$6 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $284 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $136 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $141 −$8 -5%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $8 −$1 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $288 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $136 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $140 −$4 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 23 $36 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $20 −$3 -17%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $151 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 12 $1,004 +$6 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 30 $307 −$2 -1%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1900 in July? Jul 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 12 $12 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Jul 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 11 $7 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 11 $4 $0 +5%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 10 $4 −$1 -18%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 09 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $143 32m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $143 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $143 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $143 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $143 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $143 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $123 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $130 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $143 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $143 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $143 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $142 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $142 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $142 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $49 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $93 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $142 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $17 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $14 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $131 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $146 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $13 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 10¢ $2 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 10¢ $12 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $34 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $39 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.26 · official $0.00 · 390 history records