Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:52:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FF 0xffca…0b64 sports 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$202 (-3%) realized −$69 · open −$133
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%69W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day42.2pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$243
7 days−$153
14 days−$192
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$444
other 17% −$28
crypto 1% +$94
world 1% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 +7.5% -2.8% 55% 55% -11.6%
≤30d 129 +6.4% -3.8% 53% 53% -11.9%
≤90d 129 +6.4% -3.8% 53% 53% -11.9%
all 129 +6.4% -3.8% 53% 53% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 53% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.0% 53% -20.3%
15% -21.4% 51% -28.0%
20% -29.1% 47% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$58 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized−$133
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses69 / 60
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions3
Markets (closed)129 / 133
History coverage8d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day42.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Infinite 44¢ 0¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Infinite 43¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Sashi Esport 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $48 +$36 +75%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $117 −$117 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $63 −$63 -100%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $54 +$36 +66%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 18 $59 +$36 +61%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $46 +$38 +83%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $17 +$13 +75%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $23 +$7 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $29 +$15 +51%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $28 +$12 +43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $36 −$18 -51%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $66 −$66 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $40 +$18 +45%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $45 +$15 +34%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $38 +$32 +87%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $24 +$26 +112%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $41 +$23 +55%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $32 +$17 +54%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $35 +$60 +169%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $22 +$27 +122%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$29 +100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $24 +$26 +106%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$30 +316%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $4 +$3 +66%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $58 +$34 +59%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $32 +$24 +75%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $11 +$9 +82%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$5 +69%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $116 −$116 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $215 −$215 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $120 +$100 +83%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $120 +$47 +40%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $62 +$38 +61%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $47 +$53 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY Infinite 40¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY Infinite 40¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY Infinite 40¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY Infinite 48¢ $46 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode SELL Walczaki 100¢ $85 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY Sashi Esport 46¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Infinite 43¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Infinite 43¢ $29 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY Sashi Esport 56¢ $9 3h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $35 3h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $13 3h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 44¢ $43 4h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 44¢ $20 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $50 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $30 11h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $50 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $37 11h
Spread: Canada (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $95 12h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 60¢ $20 13h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 60¢ $10 13h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 60¢ $18 13h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 60¢ $6 13h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $84 13h
Spread: Canada (-4.5) BUY Canada 62¢ $32 13h
Spread: Canada (-4.5) BUY Canada 62¢ $16 14h
Spread: Canada (-4.5) BUY Canada 62¢ $10 14h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 14h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 14h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $30 15h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $17 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.15 (match) · 422 history records