Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:59:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FF 0xffc8…d3e1 other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate47%22W / 25L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% $0
other 23% +$3
finance 9% $0
politics 6% $0
sports 4% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -0.6% -10.1% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 12 -0.6% -10.1% 25% 0% -9.5%
all 47 +1.5% -8.2% 47% 4% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 4% -8.7%
10% -17.0% 4% -17.5%
15% -25.0% 4% -25.4%
20% -32.4% 4% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses22 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage469d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $12 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $29 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $30 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $29 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 30 $2 $0 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $29 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $20 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 28 $5 $0 +7%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 26 $6 $0 -4%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 22 $7 $0 -2%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? May 20 $6 $0 +2%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 20 $7 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 20 $3 +$2 +73%
Will San Marino finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23? May 19 $6 $0 -4%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? May 18 $7 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 15 $7 $0 -2%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 14 $3 +$4 +150%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $3 $0 -16%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 09 $6 $0 +8%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 23 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Trump pardon 1,500 or more Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days Apr 21 $6 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $350b and $360b on March 31? Mar 24 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $12 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $12 $0 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? Mar 13 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $29 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $28 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $1 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $26 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $3 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $3 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $26 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $29 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $1 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $29 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $24 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $1 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $28 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.77 · official $28.77 (match) · 144 history records