Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:16:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
FF 0xffc6…411f other 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 564d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,937 (+22%) realized +$1,729 · open +$208
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%42W / 54L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$867now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$484
politics 40% +$1,264
sports 4% +$117
world 2% −$31
crypto 2% +$31
finance 1% +$59
tech 1% +$15
economics 0% −$20
culture 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +24.1% +12.2% 100% 100% +12.2%
≤90d 39 +60.9% +45.6% 49% 44% +19.7%
all 96 +18.7% +7.4% 44% 40% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.4% 40% +9.4%
10% -2.9% 38% -1.1%
15% -12.3% 31% -10.6%
20% -20.9% 27% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$37 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

564d coverage
Net worth$867
Realized+$1,729
Unrealized+$208
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses42 / 54
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)96 / 112
History coverage564d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 17¢ 64¢ $60 $220 +$160 (+267%)
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 67¢ 100¢ $100 $148 +$48 (+48%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 90¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 70¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 82¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+13%)
Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 79¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-15%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Bernardo Silva score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 49¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Jordan be the worst-placed Asian nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 22¢ $18 $11 −$7 (-38%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-10%)
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 24 $280 +$67 +24%
Will Australia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $100 +$117 +117%
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Romania come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 +$78 +1492%
Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$31 +301%
Will Romania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $100 +$69 +70%
Will Romania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $124 +$300 +241%
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $15 +$20 +131%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$9 +92%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $8 +$49 +588%
Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $7 +$44 +597%
Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $13 +$56 +416%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Albania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $15 −$11 -70%
Will Malta be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $24 −$23 -95%
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $15 −$6 -38%
Will "Representing" be said 5+ times during Eurovision? May 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Bulgaria come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $60 +$52 +86%
Will Latvia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 14 $30 +$12 +41%
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $131 +$30 +23%
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $220 +$110 +50%
Will Denmark win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Romania win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 13 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 13 $50 +$26 +52%
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31? May 02 $101 −$100 -99%
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elect May 02 $50 +$11 +22%
Will Wolves be relegated from the English Premier League after the 202 Apr 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Austria come in last place at Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Montenegro advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? Apr 05 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? Apr 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Lithuania advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? Mar 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Germany come in last place at Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mauricio Pochettino be appointed as manager of Tottenham? Mar 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 07 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Feb 21 $50 +$33 +67%
Will Sunoco (SUN) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 21 $100 +$59 +59%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Feb 21 $100 +$39 +39%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Dec 07 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Dec 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Kendrick Lamar rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Dec 07 $200 +$334 +167%
Will Norway win UEFA Group I for 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 07 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%? Nov 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Jimmy Kimmel rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Nov 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan be the worst-placed Asian nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 33¢ $10 1h
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $25 1h
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $40 1h
Will Bernardo Silva score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $40 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 1h
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $29 1h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 1h
Will Jordan be the worst-placed Asian nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 37¢ $8 2d
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 2d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 29¢ $33 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 2d
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 67¢ $101 8d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 8d
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $101 8d
Will Romania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $103 32d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 32d
Will Romania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 32d
Will Albania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 32d
Will Albania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 32d
Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 32d
Will Romania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $32 32d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 32d
Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 32d
Will Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 32d
Will Malta be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 32d
Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 32d
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? SELL No 84¢ $15 32d
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? SELL No 85¢ $29 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $866.77 · official $866.96 (match) · 257 history records