Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:29:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xffc5…67a5
weather · 289 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$26 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6 · open −$27
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses71 / 213
Open positions5
Markets (closed)284 / 289
History coverage36d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 284 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$123
7 days+$151
14 days+$119
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? No 52¢ 54¢ $19 $19 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 10? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 10? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? No 1¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on May 29? No 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 11? No 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 30? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 30? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on May 31? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 24? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 28? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 29? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 13? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $19 −$11 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 12 $17 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$9 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$3 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $104 +$96 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +3227%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$18 +509%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $26 +$19 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 12 $36 +$33 +92%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $7 −$3 -37%
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $53 −$4 -7%
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp Jun 12 $9 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $18 −$5 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$3 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$4 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $22 +$9 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $36 +$6 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$3 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$7 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$19 +246%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $47 −$17 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$2 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $24 −$23 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 10 $16 −$16 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $34 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 10 $15 −$14 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$9 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$7 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 09 $26 +$45 +174%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 86% −$20
tech 6% +$26
crypto 6% −$4
other 1% −$24
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 53¢ $8 1m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 52¢ $5 1m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 52¢ $5 20m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 55¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 56¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 52¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 41¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 44¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL Yes 49¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 50¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $13 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 80¢ $40 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +2.2% -7.6% 27% 24% +10.3%
≤30d 235 -6.3% -15.2% 26% 24% -3.1%
≤90d 284 -11.3% -19.7% 25% 23% -7.2%
all 284 -11.3% -19.7% 25% 23% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 23% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 21% -16.1%
15% -34.4% 19% -24.2%
20% -40.9% 17% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.52 · official $19.52 (match) · 966 history records