Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FF 0xffc4…b347 sports 783 markets active 3h ago coverage 67d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,386 (-1%) realized −$1,277 · open −$109
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate66%511W / 267L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day47.9pace
Fees−$1,147est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$495
7 days−$146
14 days−$583
30 days−$2,871
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$2,290
other 14% +$279
crypto 2% −$227
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +0.5% -9.0% 63% 63% -12.1%
≤30d 279 -4.9% -13.9% 58% 49% -14.7%
≤90d 778 -1.9% -11.3% 66% 46% -10.8%
all 778 -1.9% -11.3% 66% 46% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 46% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 28% -19.3%
15% -27.5% 15% -27.1%
20% -34.6% 8% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$79 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$1,277
Unrealized−$109
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses511 / 267
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$1,147
Open positions5
Markets (closed)778 / 783
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$192
Trades / day47.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 778 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? No 5¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 15¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 71¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $73 −$73 -100%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 17 $375 −$179 -48%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $153 −$153 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) Jun 14 $54 +$18 +33%
Spread: CD Palestino (-2.5) Jun 13 $110 +$39 +36%
Spread: CD Palestino (-1.5) Jun 13 $193 −$80 -41%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $142 −$142 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $231 −$41 -18%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $142 +$54 +38%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $83 +$116 +139%
Halle Open, Qualification: Benito Sanchez Martinez vs Roberto Bautista Jun 13 $345 +$40 +12%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $120 −$27 -22%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5) Jun 13 $115 +$23 +20%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $280 +$90 +32%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $211 +$70 +33%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $159 +$51 +32%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $655 −$250 -38%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 12 $145 −$24 -16%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $209 +$91 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $300 +$43 +14%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $242 +$56 +23%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $196 +$89 +46%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 11 $151 +$33 +22%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 11 $155 +$45 +29%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 10 $132 +$26 +19%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $105 +$27 +26%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $82 +$23 +28%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $97 −$15 -15%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $150 −$54 -36%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $160 +$57 +36%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $153 +$7 +4%
Ilkley: Iryna Shymanovich vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 09 $149 +$4 +3%
Stuttgart Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs James Duckworth Jun 09 $110 +$39 +36%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $81 +$29 +36%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova Jun 09 $53 +$27 +50%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $170 −$59 -35%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming Junior (+1.5) Jun 09 $86 +$28 +33%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $108 −$108 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 09 $128 −$128 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 09 $101 −$101 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs G-Time - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $186 −$5 -3%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 05 $47 +$12 +26%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $94 +$56 +59%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Jun 05 $175 +$75 +43%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $128 −$20 -16%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $161 +$2 +1%
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) Jun 04 $243 +$26 +11%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia C Jun 04 $169 +$79 +47%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 71¢ $17 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 71¢ $17 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 71¢ $29 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 5¢ $10 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 2¢ $3 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 27¢ $17 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 27¢ $0 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 27¢ $4 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 27¢ $7 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 27¢ $6 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 27¢ $2 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 0¢ $0 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 1¢ $0 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 2¢ $1 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 15¢ $4 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $26 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $3 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $6 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $3 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $30 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $7 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $73 2d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) SELL Tampa Bay Rays 99¢ $71 2d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 74¢ $54 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.73 · official $22.73 (match) · 3500 history records