Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:53:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FF 0xffbf…65de other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$122 (+55%) realized +$130 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +119% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +90% what you keep after slip
Net edge+90%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$29
sports 23% +$97
world 12% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+98.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +119.2% +98.3% 71% 71% +57.7%
≤30d 14 +119.2% +98.3% 71% 71% +57.7%
≤90d 14 +119.2% +98.3% 71% 71% +57.7%
all 14 +119.2% +98.3% 71% 71% +57.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +98.3% 71% +57.7%
10% +79.3% 64% +42.6%
15% +62.0% 64% +28.9%
20% +46.1% 57% +16.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +74% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +119% · $-wt +74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +188% → late +51% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$12 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.89 per $1 lost it wins $3.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$130
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 55¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+7%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$15 +97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 +$21 +97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +236%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 +$13 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 18h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 37h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 37h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 37h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 76¢ $6 44h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 44h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.82 · official $27.82 (match) · 28 history records