Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:44:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffbe…82ce other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$123 (-1%) realized −$113 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,214per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$1,150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$181
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.0% -12.3% 33% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 3 -3.0% -12.3% 33% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 3 -3.0% -12.3% 33% 0% -10.8%
all 3 -3.0% -12.3% 33% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 0% -10.8%
10% -20.7% 0% -19.4%
15% ← realistic here -28.3% 0% -27.2%
20% -35.3% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$128 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,150
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3,214
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1,160 $1,150 −$10 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,700 $0 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $7,475 +$84 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2,508 −$255 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,175 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 85¢ $363 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 85¢ $27 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 85¢ $5 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 85¢ $155 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 85¢ $5 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 85¢ $10 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 85¢ $30 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 85¢ $60 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 85¢ $3 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 85¢ $1,040 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $850 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $850 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $401 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $15 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $19 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $16 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $98 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $900 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $10 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $20 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $5 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $218 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $657 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $5 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $50 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,150.00 · official $1,150.00 (match) · 78 history records