Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:08:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffbe…1ecc other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$117 (-6%) realized −$111 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days−$115
14 days−$118
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$93
sports 14% −$25
crypto 11% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -12.5% -20.8% 55% 45% -22.5%
≤30d 21 -12.5% -20.8% 52% 48% -18.2%
≤90d 21 -12.5% -20.8% 52% 48% -18.2%
all 21 -12.5% -20.8% 52% 48% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 48% -18.2%
10% -28.4% 48% -26.0%
15% -35.3% 38% -33.1%
20% -41.7% 33% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$60 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$331
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions8
Markets (closed)21 / 29
History coverage15d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? No 39¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? No 16¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-5%)
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $21 +$32 +156%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $112 +$2 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$5 +22%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 25 $102 +$54 +53%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 +$59 +58%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $102 +$73 +72%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$32 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$39 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$70 +69%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$66 +129%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $31 +$33 +107%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $35 −$34 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $29 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $103 1h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 39¢ $103 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 16¢ $21 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 68¢ $115 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 74¢ $25 10h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $112 22h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 21¢ $21 22h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 35¢ $103 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 57¢ $102 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $102 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $102 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $102 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $102 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $102 8d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $102 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $103 12d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $118 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $51 13d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $31 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $330.65 · official $330.65 (match) · 42 history records