Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffbc…a7e7 other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$29 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%9W / 24L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$834
7 days+$688
14 days+$717
30 days+$717
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$955
crypto 15% −$380
sports 14% +$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -6.9% -15.8% 28% 28% +19.0%
≤30d 33 -10.6% -19.1% 27% 27% +17.1%
≤90d 33 -10.6% -19.1% 27% 27% +17.1%
all 33 -10.6% -19.1% 27% 27% +17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 27% +17.1%
10% -26.9% 27% +5.9%
15% -33.9% 27% -4.3%
20% -40.4% 27% -13.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +29% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$192 vs −$42 · ×4.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses9 / 24
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage12d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $80 $70 −$10 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $954 +$844 +88%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $140 −$139 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $152 +$98 +65%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $35 −$35 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -97%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 26 $51 +$187 +365%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $19 −$19 -99%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $54 −$52 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$33 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $105 −$101 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $14 −$10 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $25 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $51 +$168 +329%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25 +$15 +60%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $26 +$202 +785%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $112 +$168 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,798 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $8 3h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $10 3h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $16 3h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $3 3h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $12 3h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $5 3h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $32 3h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $47 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 53¢ $954 3h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $35 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $152 17h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 17h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $19 27h
Arda Güler: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $51 27h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $54 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $59 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $57 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.59 · official $69.59 (match) · 93 history records