Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:03:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FF 0xffba…41fb crypto 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+2%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate61%38W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +1.5% -8.2% 51% 38% -9.1%
≤30d 39 +1.5% -8.2% 51% 38% -9.1%
≤90d 42 +3.5% -6.4% 55% 40% -7.4%
all 62 +3.7% -6.2% 61% 50% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 50% -8.8%
10% -15.2% 31% -17.5%
15% -23.4% 15% -25.5%
20% -30.9% 13% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses38 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage105d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 11 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 29 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 02 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 02 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 02 $20 −$12 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 02 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 02 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 02 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records