Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FF 0xffba…d7ea world 128 markets active 6d ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate64%68W / 39L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% −$11
other 35% −$3
world 5% +$4
tech 4% $0
crypto 0% +$1
sports 0% −$4
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +10.1% -0.4% 86% 43% -7.2%
≤30d 17 +11.3% +0.7% 88% 47% -6.8%
≤90d 36 +7.1% -3.1% 81% 36% -7.6%
all 107 +2.2% -7.6% 64% 29% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 29% -9.6%
10% -16.4% 10% -18.2%
15% -24.5% 7% -26.1%
20% -31.9% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses68 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions21
Markets (closed)107 / 128
History coverage245d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 88¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 97¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 94¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 82¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 90¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 93¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 72¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 65¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $8 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +106%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 20 $1 $0 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 20 $1 $0 +35%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $13 $0 -4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 07 $5 $0 +9%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 07 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 07 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? May 07 $1 +$1 +58%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 07 $2 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Apr 14 $1 $0 +11%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 14 $1 $0 +20%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Apr 14 $4 $0 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $22 −$1 -5%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $5 $0 +0%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Mar 25 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 25 $1 $0 +10%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 25 $2 $0 +8%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $6 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Mar 17 $3 $0 +2%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 17 $7 +$3 +49%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $1 $0 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Mar 05 $1 $0 +21%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $2 $0 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Mar 05 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 17 $7 +$1 +9%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 16 $1 $0 +7%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 16 $1 $0 +11%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Feb 16 $1 $0 +15%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 16 $1 $0 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Feb 16 $1 $0 +20%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 16 $2 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 5d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 5d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 6d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 BUY No 94¢ $4 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $3 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $3 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $11 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $4 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $2 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $1 6d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 26d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 26d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 26d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 26d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 26d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 26d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 28d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $5 28d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $1 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $1 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $3 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 72¢ $1 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $2 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $5 28d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 88¢ $1 28d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 28d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 41d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 97¢ $3 41d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 97¢ $5 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.18 · official $114.18 (match) · 532 history records