Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:10:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FF 0xffb7…0ed4 sports 115 markets active 0h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$442 (-32%) realized −$389 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%22W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$356
7 days−$355
14 days−$355
30 days−$355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$86
sports 31% −$89
other 24% −$318
world 2% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -2.0% -11.3% 37% 37% -67.0%
≤30d 51 -2.0% -11.3% 37% 37% -67.0%
≤90d 51 -2.0% -11.3% 37% 37% -67.0%
all 57 -1.5% -10.9% 39% 37% -43.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 37% -43.3%
10% -19.4% 35% -48.7%
15% -27.2% 33% -53.7%
20% -34.3% 25% -58.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -64% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$18 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized−$389
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses22 / 35
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions58
Markets (closed)57 / 115
History coverage280d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 58 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Yes 52¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Ben Shelton 66¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Ann Li 49¢ 46¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Caty McNally 61¢ 66¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 55¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Tallon Griekspoor 56¢ 57¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Madison Keys 72¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ 62¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Martina Trevisan 57¢ 58¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru Miriam Bulgaru 69¢ 64¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei Aliona Falei 62¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Manel Kape 58¢ 60¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 63¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Yes 51¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 56¢ 56¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 59¢ 60¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Minnesota Twins 69¢ 69¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Cleveland Guardians 61¢ 61¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Yes 50¢ 49¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cleveland Guardians 44¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Tampa Bay Rays 68¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs No 49¢ 47¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 39¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Over 62¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $2 +$1 +67%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $273 −$272 -100%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $4 +$2 +57%
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $3 +$4 +134%
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar Jun 15 $2 −$1 -30%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $10 +$13 +129%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $3 +$2 +67%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $10 +$5 +46%
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $10 −$1 -13%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $4 +$2 +55%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro Jun 15 $61 −$2 -3%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $8 $0 -2%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Ka Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +41%
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Kan Jun 11 $1 $0 -7%
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +48%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 29m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY San Diego Padres 69¢ $2 30m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 39m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 44m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 47m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $2 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 1h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 61¢ $3 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 44¢ $3 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 56¢ $3 2h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) BUY Miami Marlins 64¢ $2 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $72 4h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 69¢ $3 4h
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova BUY Carolyn Ansari 36¢ $5 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 5h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1 5h
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 63¢ $1 6h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Karol Rosa 53¢ $1 6h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 34¢ $1 7h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 68¢ $3 7h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $2 7h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 39¢ $1 7h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 39¢ $1 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $101 7h
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Luisina Giovannini 42¢ $3 8h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. T BUY No 52¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.41 · official $156.41 (match) · 166 history records