Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:37:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffb6…5db1 crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$11 (+3%) realized +$16 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate60%26W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day94.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -15.0% -23.1% 60% 44% -17.9%
≤30d 43 -15.0% -23.1% 60% 44% -17.9%
≤90d 43 -15.0% -23.1% 60% 44% -17.9%
all 43 -15.0% -23.1% 60% 44% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 44% -17.9%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 26% -25.8%
15% -37.2% 16% -33.0%
20% -43.4% 12% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses26 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day94.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET Down 88¢ 44¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$12 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$6 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $27 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$8 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $19 +$7 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$6 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$1 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -20%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$18 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $32 +$3 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.44 · official $10.23 (match) · 134 history records