Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:33:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

FF 0xffb5…7d34 other 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$34 (-1%) realized −$30 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip

Net edge-7%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate75%6W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$167per market

Trades / day7.5pace

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$2,305now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)-2.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+7.3%	-2.9%	75%	62%	-20.0%
≤30d	8	+7.3%	-2.9%	75%	62%	-20.0%
≤90d	8	+7.3%	-2.9%	75%	62%	-20.0%
all	8	+7.3%	-2.9%	75%	62%	-20.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.9%	62%	-20.0%
10%	-12.2%	38%	-27.6%
15%	-20.7%	38%	-34.6%
20%	-28.5%	12%	-41.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 47% · top 2 66% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$40 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.64 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$2,305

Realized−$30

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses6 / 2

Open positions8

Markets (closed)8 / 16

History coverage3d

Avg bet$167

Trades / day7.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	90¢	89¢	$1,464	$1,455	−$9 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	94¢	94¢	$250	$250	−$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	91¢	90¢	$140	$139	−$1 (-1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	82¢	84¢	$109	$112	+$3 (+3%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	81¢	84¢	$100	$104	+$4 (+4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	94¢	94¢	$99	$100	+$1 (+1%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	87¢	86¢	$98	$96	−$2 (-2%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	83¢	81¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$30	−$30	-100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 25	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$10	+$2	+18%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$20	+$10	+50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$9	+$1	+16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$10	+$5	+46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$20	+$24	+119%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$100	+$10	+10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY No	91¢	$100	25m
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	SELL Yes	81¢	$100	28m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY No	91¢	$35	1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	94¢	$250	1h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	87¢	$20	1h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	80¢	$81	1h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	80¢	$101	1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY No	91¢	$5	1h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	BUY No	90¢	$1,472	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	84¢	$10	19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	62¢	$30	19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$9	45h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$30	45h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$20	45h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	BUY Yes	82¢	$110	2d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	BUY Yes	87¢	$98	2d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	BUY Yes	83¢	$50	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	80¢	$20	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	45¢	$20	2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	BUY No	94¢	$99	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$100	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,305.17 · official $2,305.17 (match) · 33 history records