Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:00:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FF 0xffb5…92c3 sports 205 markets active 1h ago coverage 209d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$115 (-2%) realized −$123 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate55%112W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$95
14 days−$81
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$29
other 14% +$12
crypto 5% −$57
politics 2% −$51
weather 2% −$53
tech 1% −$7
culture 0% +$8
world 0% +$12
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +32.7% +20.0% 88% 88% +12.4%
≤30d 42 -2.9% -12.1% 52% 40% -9.4%
≤90d 70 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 40% -12.2%
all 203 +0.8% -8.8% 55% 41% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 41% -11.3%
10% -17.5% 36% -19.8%
15% -25.5% 29% -27.6%
20% -32.8% 21% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$123
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses112 / 91
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)203 / 205
History coverage209d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 82¢ 96¢ $59 $69 +$10 (+16%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$15 +37%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$18 +44%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $37 +$11 +30%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $55 +$32 +60%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $92 −$37 -40%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $64 +$28 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $44 +$20 +44%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $77 −$6 -8%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 13 $34 −$12 -35%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $28 −$10 -35%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $124 +$3 +3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $34 −$29 -88%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $33 +$14 +44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $96 −$17 -18%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $14 −$14 -98%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 09 $20 +$4 +19%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $36 +$4 +10%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Derbyshire Jun 07 $20 +$7 +33%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Warwickshire Jun 07 $20 +$6 +30%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Glamorgan Jun 07 $20 +$16 +79%
T20 Blast: Middlesex vs Essex Jun 07 $20 −$4 -18%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Kent Jun 07 $20 −$10 -51%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 03 $21 −$8 -38%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $24 −$24 -99%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs Pakistan Jun 01 $338 −$24 -7%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $134 +$82 +62%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $55 −$29 -53%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $85 +$15 +18%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $148 +$11 +8%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $95 +$52 +55%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 25 $91 +$2 +3%
Roland Garros WTA: Talia Gibson vs Yulia Putintseva May 25 $7 −$6 -80%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals - Who w May 24 $8 +$7 +93%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $103 −$5 -4%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $40 −$29 -74%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 24 $227 +$23 +10%
Bengaluru 3: Karan Singh vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong May 19 $19 +$3 +14%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $132 −$4 -3%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $63 −$37 -58%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Max Schoenhaus May 17 $26 −$22 -86%
Will Pakistan win? May 17 $43 +$14 +34%
ODI Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 16 $20 −$10 -49%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $20 +$2 +9%
ODI Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 13 $40 +$18 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $59 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $41 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 58¢ $100 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $113 37h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $55 37h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $17 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 53¢ $17 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 3d
England to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 62¢ $55 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 47¢ $55 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $92 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $64 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $64 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $44 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $100 9d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa SELL South Africa 18¢ $18 9d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa SELL South Africa 26¢ $53 9d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY South Africa 25¢ $26 9d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY South Africa 25¢ $26 9d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY South Africa 24¢ $26 9d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova SELL Anastasia Zakharova 15¢ $6 9d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Anastasia Zakharova 35¢ $15 9d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova SELL Anastasia Zakharova 51¢ $15 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.19 · official $107.19 (match) · 576 history records