trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 0% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 18% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 18% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 27 | -5.2% | -14.2% | 48% | 7% | -15.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.2% | 7% | -15.8% |
| 10% | -22.4% | 4% | -23.8% |
| 15% | -29.9% | 4% | -31.2% |
| 20% | -36.8% | 4% | -37.9% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 24 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 23 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | Jun 23 | $45 | $0 | -1% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 23 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 07 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 05 | $38 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 05 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 04 | $41 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 03 | $55 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 03 | $41 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | Jun 02 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on June 17? | Jun 18 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? | Jun 01 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 30 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Iona vs. Niagara | Mar 20 | $7 | +$6 | +96% |
| Will CDU/CSU and Greens form the next German Government? | Mar 01 | $1 | −$1 | -71% |
| Southern Utah vs. Utah Tech | Feb 28 | $58 | −$58 | -100% |
| Will Kanye tweet 100-199 times February 20-28? | Feb 27 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Charlotte vs. Tulane | Feb 26 | $64 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tottenham win on 2025-02-26? | Feb 25 | $57 | +$2 | +3% |
| Iowa vs. Illinois | Feb 25 | $6 | $0 | +5% |
| Will "A Complete Unknown" win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 202 | Feb 25 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on February | Feb 25 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Texas A&M Commerce vs. New Orleans | Feb 24 | $52 | +$6 | +12% |