Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:25:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffb4…07e5 sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-28%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$11
other 30% +$2
world 15% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -5.4% -14.4% 57% 43% -41.9%
≤30d 7 -5.4% -14.4% 57% 43% -41.9%
≤90d 7 -5.4% -14.4% 57% 43% -41.9%
all 7 -5.4% -14.4% 57% 43% -41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 43% -41.9%
10% -22.6% 43% -47.5%
15% -30.1% 43% -52.5%
20% -36.9% 29% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$6 +119%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 42m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $7 53m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 85¢ $5 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 6h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $20 15h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 35h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 45¢ $5 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.96 · official $14.96 (match) · 15 history records