Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:24:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FF 0xffb4…6b98 sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 549d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$62 (-13%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$62
other 22% $0
politics 14% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 32 -3.2% -12.4% 0% 0% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 0% -21.0%
10% -20.8% 0% -28.5%
15% -28.5% 0% -35.4%
20% -35.5% 0% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

549d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage549d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 20 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? Oct 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Jets win the AFC Championship? Aug 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Jul 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Sturm Graz win the UEFA Champions League? Jul 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Stuttgart win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 11 $11 $0 -0%
Southampton wins the Premier League? Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will Torino win the Serie A? May 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? Apr 21 $8 $0 -0%
Warriors vs. Heat Mar 26 $61 −$61 -100%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Mar 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 24 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $115 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 21d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 21d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 58d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 58d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 100¢ $10 82d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $10 82d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 95d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 97d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 117d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 117d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $9 146d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $9 146d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $10 183d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $10 183d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 95¢ $11 208d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 95¢ $11 208d
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? SELL No 100¢ $11 235d
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? BUY No 100¢ $11 235d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $11 267d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $11 267d
Will the Jets win the AFC Championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 301d
Will the Jets win the AFC Championship? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 301d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $7 308d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 308d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $8 332d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8 332d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 339d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 339d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records